Real Investor Radio

Episode 14 | Latest Housing Stats with Logan Mohtashami

October 5, 2023

Episode Summary:

This week, Jack BeVier and Craig Fuhr are joined by Logan Mohtashami, the lead analyst for HousingWire. Logan, renowned for his data-driven approach, shares his expert insights into housing market trends and their implications for affordability and interest rates. His analysis frequently highlights key economic factors shaping today’s housing market. Not only does the discussion dive into the latest numbers, but it also explores the underlying dynamics driving these changes. Moreover, Logan provides actionable insights into what investors and buyers can anticipate in the coming months. Above all, this episode focuses on how affordability challenges and fluctuating interest rates are reshaping the market landscape. If you’re looking to stay ahead in navigating the evolving housing market trends, this episode is an essential listen.

Overview of Episode 14

Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, joins Craig Fuhr and Jack BeVier to discuss housing trends. Logan emphasizes data-driven analysis, debunking myths around housing market dynamics.

Data-Driven Insights into Housing

Logan stresses the importance of reliable data and clear economic models. He critiques speculative theories, advocating for evidence-based forecasting in housing market trends.

Low Inventory and Rising Prices

Inventory has hit historical lows for three consecutive years. According to Logan, fewer listings coupled with strong demand have driven prices to new highs.

Role of Fixed-Rate Mortgages

Fixed-rate mortgages stabilize the market, even amid rising interest rates. Logan notes that most homeowners have locked in low rates, reducing turnover and inventory availability.

Affordability Challenges in the Market

Affordability remains a key issue. Only 23% of homes are accessible to average buyers, down from 50% last year. Dual-income households continue to drive sales despite rising costs.

Impact of Interest Rates on Housing Demand

Interest rates have surged from 3% to over 7%. Logan explains that such spikes have caused the largest payment shocks in housing history. Yet, demand remains stable due to demographic strength.

Credit Markets and Their Effects

Logan highlights how tighter credit impacts inventory and demand. Regional banks face pressure, while larger institutions maintain lending. Credit tightening has been most noticeable in the jumbo loan sector.

Future of Housing Market Trends

Logan predicts continued low inventory and steady demand over the next 12 months. He attributes this stability to resilient employment and demographic support from younger buyers.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Monitor inventory levels to gauge market direction.
Consider fixed-rate mortgage benefits during inflationary periods.
Analyze local affordability trends for investment opportunities.

Final Thoughts on Housing Market Dynamics

Logan advises investors to focus on data and avoid speculative predictions. He encourages staying informed through reliable sources like HousingWire for ongoing market updates.