Episode Summary:
In this engaging conversation, Craig and Jack explore the implications of the Citrini Research report predicting a 2028 market crash, AI’s impact on jobs, real estate, and the economy. They debate potential displacement, opportunities, and how future professionals can adapt to rapid technological change.
Episode Overview
Artificial intelligence is transforming nearly every industry. Real estate is no exception. Recently, a discussion on the Real Investor Radio podcast explored a controversial research paper predicting a possible economic shock driven by AI. The report, titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” argues that rapid automation could disrupt labor markets and ripple into housing and lending.
The debate raised an important question for investors: What happens to AI in real estate if large numbers of white-collar workers lose their jobs?
The Report That Sparked the Conversation
A research firm called Citrini released the paper in February, and it quickly gained attention across major media outlets including CNBC, Fortune, and Yahoo Finance. The report outlines a dramatic prediction: the S&P 500 could drop to around 3500 by mid-2028, a decline of roughly 38 percent.
Interestingly, the report does not blame AI failure. Instead, it argues that AI could become too effective.
The theory is straightforward. Companies adopt AI tools to increase productivity and reduce labor costs. Profits rise in the short term because businesses can produce more with fewer employees. However, the broader economy may suffer if those displaced workers stop spending money.
If enough people lose their income, consumer demand could shrink. That decline would eventually affect multiple sectors, including housing.
For real estate investors, this raises a troubling possibility. Tenants who lose their jobs may struggle to pay rent.
How AI Could Affect Real Estate Markets
Many real estate investors own properties in cities driven by technology jobs. Markets like Austin, San Francisco, and Seattle rely heavily on high-income white-collar workers.
If AI automation significantly reduces those jobs, rental markets in those cities could weaken. Fewer employed tenants could mean lower rent payments or higher vacancy rates.
However, some investors see another side to the story.
Periods of economic stress often create buying opportunities. If unemployment rises and homeowners struggle to keep up with payments, the market could see more distressed properties. Investors who have access to capital may find new acquisition opportunities.
In that sense, AI in real estate could create both disruption and opportunity.
The Counterargument: AI May Create More Jobs
Not everyone agrees with the doomsday scenario.
On the podcast, Jack BeVier argued that artificial intelligence will likely expand productivity rather than eliminate large numbers of jobs. In his view, the biggest impact of AI so far is not replacing humans directly. Instead, it helps businesses build software tools and automations faster and at a lower cost.
In the past, only large companies could afford in-house technology teams. Today, AI allows even small businesses to develop custom systems and automations.
That shift could create entirely new job roles.
For example, companies may hire people who understand both their industry and how to deploy AI tools effectively. A plumbing company, for instance, might eventually have its own small technology team responsible for managing automations and AI systems.
This trend suggests that technology spending could increase even while overall operating costs decline.
The Rise of the AI-Powered Worker
Another important theme from the discussion is the emergence of a new type of professional.
Companies increasingly value employees who combine subject-matter expertise with AI skills. These workers understand the nuances of a specific industry and can build AI tools to improve efficiency.
Interestingly, this field is still very new. Many people currently learning these tools are essentially teaching themselves. Curiosity and creativity may be just as important as formal technical training.
Because of this, workers who adopt AI early may become significantly more valuable in the labor market.
What This Means for Young Professionals
The conversation also touched on the challenges facing new college graduates. Students entering the workforce today already face a competitive job market.
The advice for them may not be very different from past generations, though the tools have changed.
Young professionals still need to learn the fundamentals of their industry. However, they should also become comfortable using AI tools that increase productivity.
In many ways, AI is becoming the modern equivalent of Excel. Twenty years ago, young analysts who mastered spreadsheets gained a huge advantage. Today, the professionals who understand AI workflows may stand out in the same way.
A Real Example of AI in Real Estate Workflows
One example from the discussion highlights how AI could reshape daily work in real estate.
A junior analyst at a large self-storage company spends his time searching real estate databases like LoopNet and CoStar. His job is to identify land that might be suitable for development.
The process can be slow and repetitive. Analysts often sift through thousands of listings to find a handful of promising opportunities.
AI could dramatically change that process.
Instead of manually searching listings, AI tools could analyze location data, zoning rules, and pricing trends to identify promising properties automatically. Analysts could evaluate far more deals in the same amount of time.
This is a clear example of how AI in real estate may enhance productivity rather than eliminate roles entirely.
The Mortgage Market Question
The podcast also explored a larger financial concern. In the United States, there are roughly $13 trillion in outstanding mortgages. Every one of those loans assumes the borrower will continue earning income for decades.
If large numbers of workers lose their jobs due to automation, that assumption could weaken.
However, the current housing market is very different from the one that existed before the 2008 financial crisis. Many homeowners now hold significant equity in their properties. Even if they struggle to make payments, they may still be able to sell their homes rather than default.
As a result, the impact on housing may be less severe than some fear.
The Bottom Line
The future of AI in real estate remains uncertain. Some analysts believe automation could displace millions of workers and weaken housing markets. Others argue that AI will increase productivity and create entirely new roles across industries.
The truth may lie somewhere in between.
Artificial intelligence will almost certainly reshape the way businesses operate. It will also change how real estate investors analyze deals, manage properties, and finance projects.
For investors and professionals alike, the key takeaway is simple: those who learn to use these tools early will likely have a major advantage in the years ahead.
